Although I have been hearing about the decline of COVID cases, it was not until I studied the data that I realized the magnitude of the fall. The numbers are dramatic. Over the past month in Rochester there has been a 70% drop in the moving 7 day average of COVID cases from 645 on January 9 to 192 on February 9. The COVID freefall nationally is a similar story as evidenced by the chart below.

Today 10.2% of population or just over 33 million people have had at least one vaccine shot. When added to the 28 million that have tested positive and therefore have at least some immunity, the total jumps to 60 million or almost 20% of the national population. But this number does not account for the number of people that have had the virus but have not been tested. Some believe that number may be as many as 100 million which would mean that about half the population might now have at least some level of immunity to COVID.
As more and more get vaccinated there is every reason to think that this downward spiral will continue especially now that spring and warmer weather are around the corner. Disseminating this most positive news should renew our confidence both locally and nationally and make no mistake, confidence will be an essential element to get all of us “back to our normal.”

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